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Bitcoin Is Outperforming Stocks and Gold Since the Iran War Began — What Changed?

Crypto market shows resilience amid geopolitical turmoil and institutional accumulation.

The cryptocurrency market has shown notable resilience in recent weeks as global markets react to escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict with Iran. While traditional assets such as equities and precious metals have faced pressure, Bitcoin has managed to hold relatively strong and in some cases outperform key benchmarks including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and gold.

Bitcoin has risen roughly 6% over the past week. According to justETF data, Since the conflict with Iran began on Feb. 28, the digital asset has climbed approximately 12%. Over the same stretch, the S&P 500 and gold have both declined, while the technology heavy Nasdaq Composite has dropped more than 2%.

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Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its all time high of $126,198 reached in October last year.

Institutional Demand Continues to Build

Institutional capital continues to flow into the crypto market even as global tensions create volatility across asset classes. According to a CoinShares report, cryptocurrency investment products recorded $1.06 billion in inflows last week. The data extends a three week streak of positive flows totaling $2.2 billion.

Bitcoin related funds dominated the inflows. Approximately $793 million, or about three quarters of the weekly total, flowed specifically into Bitcoin investment vehicles. The renewed demand has helped push total assets under management across crypto investment products to around $140 billion, representing a 9.4% increase since geopolitical tensions intensified in late February.

Analysts at CoinShares suggest the trend reflects growing investor interest in Bitcoin as a potential alternative store of value during periods of market stress.

Solana digital asset investment products weren’t left behind, recording $9.1M in net inflows last week and marking the sixth consecutive week of positive flows.

Year to date inflows into Solana focused funds have now reached $181M, signaling sustained investor interest beyond Bitcoin even as volatility continues across global markets.

Strategy Buys $1.57B Worth of Bitcoin, Adds Market Support

Large scale purchases by corporate treasury firms have also played a role in supporting Bitcoin's price. Strategy, the publicly traded company chaired by Michael Saylor, continues to accumulate Bitcoin aggressively.

Earlier today, the firm purchased 22,337 $BTC for approximately $1.57 billion at an average price of around $70,194 per coin. Strategy currently holds 761,068 BTC acquired for roughly $57.61 billion at an average cost of $75,696.

The company's latest accumulation is partly driven by its preferred stock product known as STRC, a yield generating instrument designed to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. Investor demand for STRC has surged recently, generating large inflows that translate directly into Bitcoin buy pressure.

Last week alone, Strategy sold almost 12 million units of STRC shares, generating $1.18 billion. Probably a huge chunk of the capital used for the 22,337 $BTC purchased earlier today.

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The strategy forms part of the company's broader "42/42" plan aimed at raising $84 billion in fresh capital over the next two years to expand its Bitcoin treasury.

While the buying activity has contributed to market momentum, some analysts have expressed concerns about the sustainability of the structure. STRC offers investors yields of roughly 11%, which significantly exceeds traditional bond yields. Critics note that maintaining such payouts could eventually require Strategy to borrow against assets or sell holdings if incoming capital slows.

Bitcoin and Gold React Differently to Geopolitical Stress

The Iran conflict has provided a real world case study in how Bitcoin and gold respond to geopolitical shocks. Historically, investors have viewed gold as the primary safe haven asset during periods of instability. The metal initially rose as tensions escalated before retreating significantly when the US dollar strengthened and Treasury yields increased.

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Bitcoin followed a different path. The cryptocurrency initially dropped to around $63,000 as traders sold risk assets broadly. However, it later recovered above $70,000 and has since held within the $65,000 to $75,000 range.

Market observers note that Bitcoin's reaction appeared more closely tied to liquidity conditions and investor sentiment rather than classic safe haven demand

Debate Over Bitcoin's Value Continues

Public debate over Bitcoin's long term value has also intensified. Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently criticized cryptocurrencies, describing them as a "giant Ponzi scheme" in a column published by the Daily Mail.

Michael Saylor responded to the criticism on social media, rejecting the comparison. He argued that a Ponzi scheme requires a central operator promising returns to investors. Bitcoin, according to Saylor, operates as an open and decentralized monetary network without a central issuer or guaranteed returns.

Whether Bitcoin can sustain this outperformance remains an open question as the geopolitical environment continues to evolve. The conflict involving Iran has already pushed oil prices sharply higher and injected volatility into global markets, raising concerns about inflation, supply disruptions and slower economic growth. If energy prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions persist, investors may continue searching for alternative assets that can diversify portfolios during periods of instability.

In the months ahead, Bitcoin's performance against equities and traditional safe haven assets such as gold may serve as a real time test of whether the digital asset can maintain its recent strength in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

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