Prediction Markets on Solana: $28.6M in Early Onchain Volume Across Jupiter and DFlow

Prediction markets have rapidly emerged as one of the most actively discussed verticals in crypto. As interest grows, multiple teams are exploring ways to bring these markets onchain, seeking deeper liquidity, broader distribution, and more transparent settlement. Following a successful offchain launch, Kalshi has taken its first steps into onchain infrastructure through integrations with Jupiter and DFlow on Solana. Leveraging Solana’s high-throughput environment and large active user base, these integrations offer an early view into how prediction markets may scale onchain.

This article examines onchain data from a Dune dashboard to assess how prediction markets are gaining traction on Solana, with a focus on trading volume, user activity, fees, and Total Value Locked across Jupiter and DFlow.

Volume Growth Concentrated Around DFlow

Despite being live for less than a month, Kalshi’s onchain integrations have already generated meaningful trading activity. Since mid-December, cumulative trading volume across Jupiter and DFlow has surpassed $28.6M. The majority of this activity has taken place on DFlow, where total volume has exceeded $22.4M.

DFlow’s growth has been particularly notable on individual days. On January 2, the platform recorded more than $2.13M in volume, highlighting how quickly liquidity can concentrate once distribution channels are established. In contrast, Jupiter’s prediction market-related volume has grown at a steadier pace.

A key differentiator has been wallet-level distribution. More than 98% of DFlow’s trading volume has been routed through its integration with Phantom. This stands in contrast to MetaMask’s integration with Polymarket, which has recorded approximately $856K in volume over a similar timeframe, despite both wallets enabling prediction market support around mid-December.

Transaction Activity Accelerates with Wallet Integration

Transaction data further illustrates the divergence in activity between platforms. On Jupiter, prediction market transactions have followed a gradual upward trend, reaching more than 45.4K transactions in total. This growth reflects steady user engagement but remains relatively moderate.

The launch of DFlow, combined with its Phantom integration, altered that trajectory across the broader Solana ecosystem. Transaction counts tied to prediction markets increased sharply, with DFlow alone surpassing 100K transactions in less than a month. This step change suggests that reducing friction at the wallet level plays a critical role in translating user interest into onchain execution.

Active Wallets and User Composition

Active wallet metrics reinforce this pattern. To date, Jupiter has recorded more than 10.3K unique wallets interacting with prediction markets, while DFlow has surpassed 11K. While cumulative wallet counts are similar, daily activity tells a different story.

DFlow’s daily active users are more than four times higher than those observed on Jupiter, indicating higher engagement intensity. On average, more than 35% of daily active users across prediction markets are new participants. However, this figure has been declining in recent days, particularly on DFlow, where the share of new users has fallen below 30%.

Fees and Early Revenue Signals

From a revenue perspective, prediction markets on Solana are already generating measurable fees. Total fees across Jupiter and DFlow have exceeded $154K, with DFlow accounting for more than 61.9% of that total.

Average daily fees on Jupiter remain below $710, reflecting its smaller share of transaction flow. DFlow, by comparison, is generating more than $2.3K in average daily fees.

Total Value Lock and Open Interest

Capital committed to prediction markets is also beginning to accumulate. Combined total value locked across Jupiter and DFlow has surpassed $1.15M. Of this, more than $807K is attributed to DFlow, while approximately $350K is held on Jupiter.

In addition, Jupiter’s open interest has reached more than $148K, offering insight into outstanding market exposure and trader positioning.

Conclusion: Early Signals, Structural Drivers

Several headline numbers define the current state of prediction markets on Solana: more than $28.6M in cumulative trading volume, over 145K combined transactions, $154K in fees generated, and $1.15M in total value locked, all within a matter of weeks.

Beyond the raw figures, the data highlights the structural impact of wallet integrations. Phantom’s role in routing over 98% of DFlow’s volume illustrates how embedded access can dramatically accelerate adoption, outperforming comparable integrations elsewhere in the ecosystem.

While it remains early, onchain data suggests that Solana is emerging as a viable distribution layer for prediction markets, with wallet integrations acting as the primary catalyst for growth rather than protocol design alone.

This piece is part of our Solana Data Insights series. Make sure to subscribe to Solana Data Insights for weekly onchain analysis.

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