CLARITY Act Approval Odds Drop to 49% as Time Runs Short

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, best known as CLARITY, is starting to slip through the administration’s fingers. With the U.S. Midterms rapidly approaching, time is running out to get the deal across the line.

Galaxy Research has cut its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a coin flip, down from 60% earlier this month. In a recent report, Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn argues CLARITY’s diminishing chances are not on the bill's contents, but on a Senate calendar that shrinks by the week.

Meanwhile, ‘Crypto in America’’s Eleanor Terrett suggests that the next two weeks are make or break for CLARITY, and could well decide the ultimate fate of one of crypto’s most bullish potential catalysts.

Galaxy Research Drops CLARITY Odds to 50%

Galaxy Research is losing confidence that crypto markets will see the CLARITY Act signed into law this year. But far from blaming the CLARITY’s contents, Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn argues that the Act is simply running out of time. 

After clearing the Senate Banking Committee in May, yet it has sat at item No. 423 on the Senate Legislative Calendar ever since, with no floor date, no motion to proceed, and no unified text merging the Banking and Agriculture committee versions.

With the bill still needing 60 votes, CLARITY’s to-do list is still insurmountably long. According to Thorn, the bill still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture draft, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, then House action on whatever the Senate produces. With that much procedure still ahead, Galaxy’s top researcher asserts the remaining runway to get CLARITY across the line has shrunk to a matter of weeks.

Majority Leader John Thune needs to commit floor time by early July, or the path likely slips to September. Thorn added that a public deal on combined text, a credible fix to the ethics and developer-protection fights, and above all a floor commitment for July would push his estimate back toward 60% or higher.

Terrett: “Next Two Weeks Are Critical”

With the Senate in recess until July 13, Crypto in America’s Eleanor Terrett argues that the bill’s fate now rests on what happens away from the floor over the next fortnight. Staff from both parties, administration officials, and industry stakeholders are racing to reconcile the Banking and Agriculture texts and settle the open fights over ethics and illicit finance.

When senators return, Terrett notes, the work shifts from negotiation to procedure, prepping the bill for a floor vote. Thune has signaled he wants the must-pass NDAA handled first the week of July 13, which could push CLARITY to late July or the first week of August, right up against the summer recess.

But even if the paper work can be completed in time, there’s still no guarantee that CLARITY can even get enough support. Passage needs at least 60 senators, meaning roughly seven Democrats must join all 53 Republicans. 

Getting even a handful of Democrats across the line relies on a strong ethics framework addressing President Trump’s crypto businesses, which have reportedly generated more than $2 billion for ‘the crypto president’ since he reclaimed the Oval Office office.

That hasn’t stopped Senator from making compromises in a bid to get the bill across the line. Seeking to placate the Democrats, Senator Cynthia Lummis has suggested letting state attorneys sue exchanges for listing tokens issued by public officials.

What’s Causing the Time Crunch?

The squeeze comes down to two hard constraints, and the first is the upcoming recess. The Senate is scheduled to sit through July and the first week of August, then go largely dark until September 14, before breaking again for much of October and early November as the midterms take over. 

If CLARITY does not move by late July or early August, the next real window is September, a month usually swallowed by government funding fights, the NDAA, nominations, and election positioning. That doesn’t leave much time for actually deliberating the deal on the Senate Floor, which could create further delays and postponements as members negotiate on the contents of the deal.

What’s at Stake for Solana?

For the crypto industry, CLARITY is the prize that would end a decade of regulation by enforcement. The bill draws a statutory line between digital commodities and securities, handing the CFTC clear jurisdiction over most blockchain-native tokens and narrowing the SEC’s reach over spot crypto markets. It also writes explicit protection for DeFi activity and self-custody into federal law.

The SEC and CFTC already named $SOL among 16 digital commodities back in March, but that designation came from an agency interpretation, not a statute, and a future administration could potentially unwind it. CLARITY is what would make the classification permanent, locking CFTC oversight of assets like $SOL beyond the reach of any single SEC chair.

According to Polymarket data, the CLARITY now has a 49% of being signed into law before the end of the year, down from a peak of 82% back in February.

Read More on SolanaFloor

Are the trenches back?

$ANSEM Rips to $100M in 24 Hours - But Can It Actually “Save the Trenches”?

Seraphim Joins The Big Picture