SEC Changes Tune on 19b-4s, Acknowledges Grayscale SOL Spot ETF Filing

After looking wildly unlikely during former President Joe Biden’s tenure, Solana ETF approvals have become a question of when, not if, under the Trump administration.

In a critical move, Trump’s SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s 19b-4 Solana ETF filing. While an acknowledgment is by no means a green light, Gensler's SEC previously refused this key step in the approvals process.

While Solana ETF approvals gather momentum, another TradFi heavyweight has made bold price predictions for $SOL.

Grayscale Filing Marks Important First

On February 6, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart shared that the United States SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana ETF 19b-4 filing. 

Seyffart remarked that the Gensler-led SEC had previously refused this step in recent filings, suggesting that this development is a positive step toward eventual Solana ETF approvals. The SEC’s acknowledgment means that a new deadline for approvals has been shifted to sometime in October 2025.

Adding further clarity, the analyst theorized that the SEC’s acknowledgment of the filing could be considered a positive sign for any parties currently facing an SEC lawsuit that considers SOL a security— no doubt alluding to the agency’s long-standing legal battle with Coinbase.

Acknowledgement A “Direct Result of Leadership Change”

Supporting his colleague's thesis, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas argues this development leads Solana ETF approvals into “new territory”, which would’ve been impossible under the jurisdiction of the Gensler’s SEC.

Balchunas contends that while the SEC’s acknowledgment of the filing is “a baby step”, it also illustrates the immediate influence of Trump’s pro-crypto administration, headed up by White House Crypto Czar and Solana investor David Sacks.

The SEC’s acknowledgment comes following the announcement of CME Solana Futures on January 23rd. Widely considered a necessary pre-requisite to spot ETF listings, the lack of Solana Futures contracts in TradFi has long been considered a key obstacle to Solana ETF approvals.

Markets are certainly optimistic about Solana ETF approvals in 2025. According to Polymarket, the internet’s leading prediction marketplace, Solana ETF approval odds have risen to 85% in January following President Trump’s inauguration.

TradFi Giant Envisions $520 SOL

Adding more fuel to the fire, one of the world’s biggest asset managers has a shared a lofty price prediction for $SOL. Boasting over $113B in AUM, VanEck projects Solana could run as high as $520 by the end of 2025.

Referencing the strong correlation between the SCP market and the U.S. M2 supply growth, VanEck forecasts the SCP market to grow by 43% by the end of the year, rising to $1.1T from its current $770B valuation.

Crediting Solana’s popularity among developers, DEX volume market dominance, network revenues, and widespread adoption, VanEck expects Solana to capture 22% of the entire Smart Contract Platform (SCP) market, forecasting a market cap of $250B pricing $SOL at $520.

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